The latest data show that the inflation indicators of major economies such as the United States and Europe rose more than expected, which raised investors' concerns about the increased import inflation pressure faced by China and the spillover impact of the more than expected tightening policies in Europe and the United States. Experts believe that the impact of rising global inflation on China's prices is generally limited. The increase of CPI in the whole year is expected to remain moderate, the increase of PPI will gradually decline, the certainty of China's economic recovery is stronger, and there is sufficient policy space to deal with external risks. Inflation expectations are rising, but will gradually fall. Data show that CPI in Europe, America and some emerging economies increased significantly year-on-year in 2021, reaching a new high in recent decades. Experts believe that this round of global inflation is not caused by a single factor, but the result of the combined action of demand pull, supply shortage, loose liquidity and other factors. From the demand side, the policy stimulus in Europe and the United States is strong, and the terminal demand recovers rapidly. Excluding price factors, the volume of us commodity imports since 2021 has been significantly higher than the pre epidemic level. As the repair speed of supply is significantly slower than the recovery speed of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, pushing up the price of end consumer goods. The novel coronavirus pneumonia has a major impact on the main commodity suppliers from the supply side. The global supply capacity of goods is restricted. The global supply chain recovery is not coordinated and incomplete. The shortage of transport equipment such as ships is difficult to solve in the short term. In addition, the energy transformation intensifies the supply shortage and the price of energy products is high. From the perspective of liquidity, in response to the epidemic, the central banks of major economies have implemented unprecedented easing policies. The balance sheet expansion scale of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan exceeds the level during the global financial crisis in 2008. The loose liquidity environment provides conditions for the rise of inflation. Looking ahead to the next stage, some researchers believe that global high inflation may remain for some time. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January, the inflation rate of developed economies will rise from 3.1% in 2021 to 3.9% in 2022; Inflation in emerging and developing economies will rise from 5.7% in 2021 to 5.9% in 2022. "Although global high inflation will continue, it is expected to fall back within the year." Wen bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with China Securities News that on the one hand, the impact of the epidemic has gradually weakened, the global supply chain has gradually recovered, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to ease. After the super rise of major commodity prices last year, the rising momentum of this year is weakened, and the probability will stabilize and fall. On the other hand, the monetary policy shift of major developed economies is expected to be ahead of schedule. The Federal Reserve will withdraw from quantitative easing and start the process of raising interest rates, and start the table contraction in time, which is expected to form a certain restriction on inflation. In addition, the main inflation indicators experienced a rapid rise last year, and the high base effect is expected to push the inflation indicators down during the year. The overall impact is limited. Prices will remain stable. Global high inflation is expected to rise. What is the impact on China's prices? From the perspective of imported inflation, "a series of steady growth measures have been introduced this year, and the policy effect is expected to continue to play. The impact of imported inflation is expected to be controllable as a whole." Wen Bin said that the rise in global commodity prices last year led to an increase in the cost of raw materials, which had a certain impact on some Chinese enterprises. The state immediately introduced measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, which played a positive role in the rescue of enterprises. "There is a solid foundation for the stable operation of China's prices in 2022. It is expected that the CPI will continue to rise moderately, the increase of PPI may gradually decline, and the price trend of upstream and downstream will become more coordinated." Liu Zhicheng, a researcher at the Institute of market and price research of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said. From the perspective of the spillover effect of the external tightening policy, the joint chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that the Fed's table contraction may promote the rise of the US long-term interest rate, which has a short-term impact on US stocks. However, this round of contraction has limited impact on China's cross-border capital flows, monetary policy and bond interest rates. In the second half of 2022, China's economic growth will remain stable after the US Federal Reserve's economic boom and the global economic growth will remain stable in the second half of 2022. Therefore, although the dislocation of China US monetary policy will gradually narrow the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the good prospect of China's economic growth will continue to attract overseas funds. The tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has limited impact on the upward pressure on China's bond interest rate and the independence of monetary policy. In the context of domestic loose liquidity, interest rates are expected to continue to fluctuate downward. Adhere to the bottom line thinking and strengthen supply and price stability. Although the impact of global high inflation on China is limited, China still needs to be vigilant against imported inflation pressure and the spillover risk of the shift of Fed monetary policy. On the one hand, in the global environment of high inflation, the task of ensuring the supply and price stability of China's primary products is more arduous. On the other hand, under the joint influence of structural and cyclical factors, it is expected that the upstream price rise represented by PPI and the downstream price stability represented by CPI will continue for some time. The upstream price rise will squeeze the profit space of middle and downstream enterprises and increase their survival pressure. Experts suggested that we should maintain the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, give full play to the automatic stabilizer function of the exchange rate in the balance of payments, and reduce the impact of global price increases on the domestic market; Make better use of "two resources and two markets" at home and abroad, accelerate the construction of a modern international circulation system of bulk commodities, smooth production, processing, storage and circulation, and form a closed loop of the whole industrial chain; Discover and hedge the price of financial derivatives, and give play to the functions of primary financial products, such as option and hedging. In order to deal with the spillover risk of the shift of the Fed's monetary policy, Wen bin suggested that in the window period before the substantive contraction of the Fed's monetary policy, we should adhere to the stability of macro policy, focus on ourselves, strengthen efforts to boost domestic demand, enhance the confidence of market players and promote the economic operation within a reasonable range. Ride the wind and waves and sail thousands of miles. China's economy has continued to recover and develop, the supply of industrial and agricultural products and services is abundant, the supply of grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables and other important livelihood commodities is sufficient, and the guarantee of basic energy such as coal, oil and gas is strong. The ability to effectively deal with abnormal market price fluctuations has been significantly enhanced. These will provide strong support for adapting to changes in the external environment. Of course, in the face of complex domestic and international economic situations, we should also adhere to the bottom line thinking, strengthen risk monitoring and make response plans. [source: CCTV news]